Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: March. 9, 2023
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Picture
CATEGORY COMMENTARY:
Related Stories
VIP+
Packed Holiday Box Office Speaks to Misguided Scheduling Strategies
HBO Boss Confirms 'The White Lotus' Season 4 Has Been Pitched, 'Big Little Lies' Season 3 in Development and More
After winning DGA, PGA, SAG and WGA, “Everything Everywhere” feels like an undeniable winner. If you are predicting an “upset,” you must give a very strong case through your predictions (i.e., “All Quiet on the Western Front” is sweeping, or “The Banshees of Inisherin” is picking up two acting, screenplay and score). While some voters are not in the camp for “Everything Everywhere,” if there is an upset brewing, “Top Gun: Maverick” would be the one to do it. Keep an eye on visual effects (and possibly original song) during the ceremony to indicate this is possible.
Will Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang
Could Win: “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison, Jerry Bruckheimer
Should Win: “Tár” (Focus Features) – Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan
Should have been here: “Close” (A24) — Michiel Dhont, Dirk Impens
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
.tg-sort-header::-moz-selection{background:0 0}.tg-sort-header::selection{background:0 0}.tg-sort-header{cursor:pointer}.tg-sort-header:after{content:”;float:right;margin-top:7px;border-width:0 5px 5px;border-style:solid;border-color:#404040 transparent;visibility:hidden}.tg-sort-header:hover:after{visibility:visible}.tg-sort-asc:after,.tg-sort-asc:hover:after,.tg-sort-desc:after{visibility:visible;opacity:.4}.tg-sort-desc:after{border-bottom:none;border-width:5px 5px 0}@media screen and (max-width: 767px) {.tg {width: auto !important;}.tg col {width: auto !important;}.tg-wrap {overflow-x: auto;-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;margin: auto 0px;}}
| And The Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Film | Distributor | Producers |
| 1 | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | A24 | Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang |
| An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led. | |||
| 2 | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures | Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer |
| After thirty years, Maverick is still pushing the envelope as a top naval aviator, but must confront ghosts of his past when he leads TOP GUN’s elite graduates on a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those chosen to fly it. | |||
| 3 | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures | Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh |
| Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. | |||
| 4 | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Netflix | Malte Grunert |
| A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I. | |||
| 5 | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures | Tony Kushner, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg |
| A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen. | |||
| 6 | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. | Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss |
| The life of American music icon Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker. | |||
| 7 | “Tár” | Focus Features | Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan |
| Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra. | |||
| 8 | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing | Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Frances McDormand |
| A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men. | |||
| 9 | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon | Philippe Bober, Erik Hemmendorff |
| A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island. | |||
| 10 | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios | James Cameron, Jon Landau |
| Jake Sully lives with his newfound family formed on the extrasolar moon Pandora. Once a familiar threat returns to finish what was previously started, Jake must work with Neytiri and the army of the Na’vi race to protect their home. | |||
var TGSort=window.TGSort||function(n){“use strict”;function r(n){return n?n.length:0}function t(n,t,e,o=0){for(e=r(n);o=r(n)?t:NaN}function d(n){var e=[],o=n;return t([f,s,c],function(u){var a=[],i=[];t(n,function(n,r){r=u(n),a.push(r),r||i.push(n)}),r(i)1&&r(i[0])<r(i[1])?1:0,v=f+1,p=i[f],h=r(p),l=[],g=[],N=[],m=v;m<c;++m){for(var T=0;T<h;++T){r(g)<h&&g.push([]);var C=i[m][T],L=C.textContent||C.innerText||””;g[T].push(L.trim())}N.push(m-v)}t(p,function(n,t){l[t]=0;var a=n.classList;a.add(“tg-sort-header”),n.addEventListener(“click”,function(){var n=l[t];!function(){for(var n=0;n0?”tg-sort-asc”:”tg-sort-desc”),l[t]=n;var i,f=g[t],m=function(r,t){return n*f[r].localeCompare(f[t])||n*(r-t)},T=function(n){var t=d(n);if(!r(t)){var u=o(n),a=o(n.map(e));t=d(n.map(function(n){return n.substring(u,r(n)-a)}))}return t}(f);(r(T)||r(T=r(u(i=f.map(Date.parse),isNaN))?[]:i))&&(m=function(r,t){var e=T[r],o=T[t],u=isNaN(e),a=isNaN(o);return u&&a?0:u?-n:a?n:e>o?n:e<o?-n:n*(r-t)});var C,L=N.slice();L.sort(m);for(var E=v;E<c;++E)(C=s[E].parentNode).removeChild(s[E]);for(E=v;E<c;++E)C.appendChild(s[v+L[E-v]])})})}}n.addEventListener(“DOMContentLoaded”,function(){for(var t=n.getElementsByClassName(“tg”),e=0;e<r(t);++e)try{v(t[e])}catch(n){}})}(document)
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95thOscarsceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.
2022 category winner: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger (producers)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
