Oscar Nominations 2023: Our Final Picks and Predictions (2024)

WhenAllison WilliamsandRiz Ahmed announce the 2023 Oscar nominations on Tuesday, January 24, there’s bound to be a surprise—or 10. So in making our Oscars 2023 nomination predictions, we’re really just trying to do our best, sifting through weeks of precursor awards, the Oscar short list, and a general sense of “momentum” to predict which films will have the most to smile about on Tuesday—and then a whole other campaign to get started on.

Below, our predictions in 20 Oscar categories (not including the short films).Watch the nominations live on Tuesday, starting at 8:30 a.m. ET.

BEST PICTURE

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale

The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Everything Everywhere All at Onceall landed PGA, DGA, and SAG nominations, and have firmly cemented themselves as the front-runners of the season. Academy members loveElvis and Top Gun: Maverick, which feel like they’re both safely on this list, especially after landing PGA noms as well.Tár may be a bit more polarizing, but Academy members seem to admire it and it hasn’t missed out on any of the important precursors. This year’sbest-picture nominees will likely include the most sequels ever, with Avatar: The Way of Water also feeling like a solid lock. Black Panther’s best-picture nomination in 2019 was a history-making achievement, and though the sequel feels slightly more at risk, we’re betting it makes it, especially since it also landed a PGA nomination. It certainly doesn’t hurt that supporting-actressAngela Bassett’s been on a trophy tear lately, which helps keep the film top of mind.

The two remaining spots are a gamble because many of the remaining contenders have strong selling points. The German-language war filmAll Quiet on the Western Fronthas been gaining momentum over the past few weeks, earning14 BAFTA nominations and appearing on several Oscar short lists. It feels poised to land nominations beyond best international feature, in the same wayDrive My Car did last year. Netflix’s other best hope is the Knives Outsequel,Glass Onion, but missing out on a SAG Awards ensemble nom for its star-studded cast and the fact that the original didn’t land a best-picture nomination makes it feel like a long shot.Babylongot the SAG ensemble nom, but the starry epic has stumbled with other precursor awards and doesn't have widespread appeal.

A day or two ago, we’d have putWomen Talking in that final spot, especially after it earned a SAG ensemble nomination that gave it a much-needed boost ahead of voting. But the fact that the individual acting nominations seem to have fallen by the wayside, plus its a BAFTA snub, are concerning developments. It could still slip in or this final spot could go to a bigger surprise, like sharp satireTriangle of Sadness,which has also been a crowd-pleaser that earned two Globes and several BAFTA noms, but may not have enough widespread appeal.RRR has surprised at every turn, and there’s a possibility it could do so here as well. The Indian box office hit made the National Board of Review's top 10 and won the best-director prize from the New York Film Critics Circle, along with the Globe for best song.

This season’s biggest question mark,The Whale, has been quite polarizing among audiences and nominating bodies both, but nabbed a surprise PGA nomination, and has garnered widespread praise forBrendan Fraser’s lead performance. Fraser’s glowing acceptance speech at the Critics Choice Awards put the film front of mind, and it’s one of the few box office success stories for specialty films this season. That, in our opinion, makes it the most likely to nab that final spot. —Rebecca Ford

BEST DIRECTOR

Edward Berger,All Quiet on the Western Front
Todd Field,Tár
Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert,Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh,The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg,The Fabelmans

The Directors Guild of America typically misses one of the Oscars’ five directing nominees, so at least one ofThe Fabelmans’Steven Spielberg,The Banshees of Inisherin’sMartin McDonagh,Everything Everywhere All at Once’sDan KwanandDaniel Scheinert,Tár’sTodd Field,andTop Gun: Maverick’sJoseph Kosinski are bound to drop out for a surprise. The list of viable replacements is so long there are about a dozen names that wouldn’t shock me. Still, the race has narrowed somewhat: BAFTA liftedThe Woman King’s Gina Prince-Bythewood andDecision to Leave’sPark Chan-wook;Avatar: The Way of Water’sJames Cameron andElvis’sBaz Luhrmann have huge spectacle affection on their sides; and there’s the wild card factor ofS.S. Rajamouli, whoseRRRmay just have enough passionate fans to squeak through in this most international-friendly branch.

But to that point:Edward Berger is extremely well-positioned right now. TheAll Quiet on the Western Frontdirector is a BAFTA nominee, as is his movie for best picture. The film unexpectedly dominated the Oscar short lists, indicating the Academy has seen and admired it. And it’s become unusual for a non-English-language title tonotmake the director five. FromDrive My Car’sRyusuke Hamaguchi toAnother Round’sThomas Vinterberg toCold War’sPawel Pawlikowski, the trend is undeniable. So who does Berger bump? The obvious answer is Kosinski, as the DGA tends to favor box office heavyweights while the Academy’s directing branch can punish more commercial choices (recall last year’sDenis Villeneuve snub). As of now, I’m predicting he won’t make the cut. But I worry a bit for Spielberg, who couldn’t even crack BAFTA’s long list. His movie has lost steam outside of an impressive Globes showing. I still think the love for him is too strong to deny, but he’s not a sure thing. —David Canfield

BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler,Elvis
Colin Farrell,The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser,The Whale
Paul Mescal,Aftersun
Bill Nighy,Living

Best actor now seems very much a three-man race.Austin Butler is the year’s breakout story, with the box office success ofElvisand aGolden Globe win behind him. Colin Farrellrepresents the extremely well-likedThe Banshees of Inisherinand earned a Golden Globe of his own; he would be earning his first-ever Oscar nomination, a strange thing to consider given his outstanding career. And then there’s Brendan Fraser, who has been the year’s comeback kid ever sinceThe Whale premiered at Venice. Farrell won the best-actor prize there, but Fraser has ridden the momentum ever since, and withThe Whale a surprising box office success, the affection for him seems to extend outside the industry. It’s difficult to predict who will win best actor, but it will almost certainly be one of these three.

So who will round out the lineup?Bill Nighy looks likely to be yet another first-time nominee with decades of excellent work behind him, for his low-key but captivating performance inLiving, a crowd-pleaser ever since its Sundance premiere a year ago. He joined the other three in a SAG lineup that also includedAdam SandlerforHustle, a very viable populist pick alongsideTom Cruise forTop Gun: Maverick. But recent Oscar history—Willem Dafoe forAt Eternity’s Gate,Viggo Mortensen forCaptain Fantastic—suggests something with a smaller but deeply devoted fan base might make it in. So we’re looking toPaul Mescal, star of the year’s most acclaimed debut featureAftersun, toalso earn his first nomination. If he gets in, that will be the first best-actor lineup consisting entirely of newcomers in at least half a century. —Katey Rich

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett,Tár
Viola Davis,The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler,Till
Michelle Williams,The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh,Everything Everywhere All at Once

If there could be one major surprise on Tuesday, it would be the inclusion ofAndrea Riseborough on the best-actress list. Over the past two weeks, there’s been a growing celebrity-driven,grassroots campaign for her work in a small indie calledTo Leslie. It’s an unusual phenomenon and if it works, it would be a game changer for awards season in general. We’re betting that it’s just a little too late to make a dent in the lineup, but we would be happy to be surprised.

Michelle Yeoh andCate Blanchettremain the clear front-runners in this category. Both have been nominated for SAG,Critics Choice Awards, Gothams, Globes, and all the critics groups. Their paths to this point have been very different—Yeoh will be earning her first Oscar nomination ever and Blanchett has won twice—as have their campaigns. The three remaining slots are more up in the air.Michelle Williams, who raised some eyebrows by submitting as lead, missed out on the BAFTA and SAG Award noms, indicating more vulnerability than expected.Danielle Deadwyler andViola Davis, who did both land SAG and BAFTA noms, are both representing films that may not be nominated anywhere else. But other than Riseborough’s eleventh hour gamble, there isn’t a lot of competition that feels likely to swoop in, unless there’s more admiration that anticipated for Ana de Armas’s brave performance inBlonde or overflowing love forOlivia Colman for Empire of Light—though both those films have received cold receptions overall. —RF

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brendan Gleeson,The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch,The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan,The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan,Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne,The Good Nurse

The most obvious lock to win we’ve got right now,Ke Huy Quan has swept the critics’ circuit and televised awards without missing a beat, and has a very clear path to his first Oscar forEverything Everywhere All at Once. He’s not missing here, nor, it seems, are the twoBansheesmen:Brendan Gleeson andBarry Keoghan. Despite risking vote-splitting, they’ve been nominated together, again without missing a beat, at the Globes, BAFTA, SAG, and Critics Choice. They’ve proven that, as backed by a top-tier best-picture contender, they’re strong enough to jointly contend.

This leads me toThe Fabelmans, which I’m not so sure about in that regard.Paul Dano made the SAG lineup, andJudd Hirsch feels like an obvious kind of Academy veteran surprise, in the vein ofJ.K. Simmons orJudi Dench, referencing last year’s examples alone. Is the film on solid-enough ground to welcome both in, despite neither making the BAFTA long lists? Maybe! The category has thinned out with the near tanking ofBabylonandWomen Talking (though if either overperforms,Brad Pitt andBen Whishaw can play spoiler here). The one I really wonder about disrupting that harmony isEddie Redmayne. He’ll certainly be the only nominee forThe Good Nurse,a precarious position for any supporting candidate. (Just ask last year’s supporting-actress fallout,Ruth Negga.) But he’s an Oscar winner, in a very different kind of role from his previous nominations, and such a standout in a field of subtler work that visibility may just push him through. If it does, I fear that Dano—speaking of wonderfully quiet work—is more vulnerable than he might appear. —DC

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett,Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau,The Whale
Kerry Condon,The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis,Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu,Everything Everywhere All at Once

It is very possible for strange things to happen in this category.Prominent punditshave taken a flier in recent days that Michelle Williams, despite her lead-actress campaign forThe Fabelmans,mightpull aKate Winslet and show up in a different category. There are contenders likeDolly de Leon forTriangle of Sadness,Carey Mulligan forShe Said,Janelle Monáe forGlass Onion,and bothJessie Buckley andClaire Foy forWomen Talking, who have precursor support and very viable paths to nominations.

But, let’s stick with what we’re actually predicting, a repeat of the lineup from the SAG nominations. Angela Bassett andJamie Lee Curtis are the veterans who seem firmly locked in place, with Bassett’s wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards giving her front-runner status for the moment.Kerry Condon, part of the formidableBanshees ensemble, has worked hard in the industry for over 20 years with little recognition, and it’s impossible to imagine voters not wanting to include her. That brings us to the two breakouts:Stephanie Hsu has been overlooked in favor of her costar Curtis by some precursor groups, but she’s at the emotional center of theEEAAOjuggernaut, and we think her momentum will catch up in time for Oscar nominations. AndHong Chau has been here before with stellar supporting work in a divisive film, seemingly comingvery close to her first nomination withDownsizing in 2017. WithThe Whale surging and Fraser a guaranteed best-actor nomination, Chau seems poised to have her moment this time. —KR

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Todd Field, Tár
Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh,The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

If this lineup (which aligns with the recent BAFTA nominationslist) comes to fruition, only one of the writers will have ever been nominated in this specific category before: McDonagh, who has won it twice (In Bruges andThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). Sure, Spielberg has one screenplay nomination (in 1979 for Close Encounters of the Third Kind, before the category was split) andTony Kushner has been nominated for adapted screenplay twice, but it’s exciting to see so many newcomers in the field. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert feel like locks after the recent success ofEverything Everywhere(including a Critics Choice win for original screenplay), and Field seems secure as well for his first feature in 16 years. There are some showy films likeElvisandBabylonthat may be under consideration, but, like last year’s inclusion ofThe Worst Person in the World, we’re betting voters back an international scribe for the final slot:Ruben Östlund for the crowd-pleasing and stomach-turning Triangle of Sadness,which has been winning over voters since its debut in Cannes. —RF

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

All Quiet on the Western Front, by Edward Berger, Ian Stokell & Lesley Paterson
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, by Rian Johnson
Living, by Kazuo Ishiguro
The Whale,by Samuel D. Hunter
Women Talking, by Sarah Polley

I’m not really sure what’s happening here. The two supposed front-runners,Women Talking andGlass Onion, missed the BAFTA category entirely, and every Oscar winner for adapted screenplay in the 2000s has received an equivalent BAFTA nod. It feels like at least one of the two still has to get nominated, even if the films have lost steam otherwise; they’re script-driven movies, both of whose writers have been nominated by this branch before. As of now I’m still expecting them both to make it through on the strength of their campaigns and critical acclaim, but we can’t call either a front-runner at this stage, and either or both could miss.

The safest nominees now are probablyLiving,another critical hit that comes from an iconic author inKazuo Ishiguro, andThe Whale, the kind of dialogue-driven stage adaptation this branch often favors. Both were nominated by BAFTA and have the cushion of running alongside likely lead-acting nominees Bill Nighy and Brendan Fraser. BAFTA also went wild forAll Quiet on the Western Front, and some of those noms will translate to the Academy, but screenplay is a tougher call for a war film. In this case, though, it’s working off of a known, seminal book whose previous adaptation is etched in Academy history. That may be sufficient, but with contenders as unique asShe Said, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, and yes,Top Gun: Maverick waiting in the wings, very little seems certain in this category. —DC

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

All Quiet on the Western Front(Germany)
Close(Belgium)
Decision to Leave(South Korea)
EO(Poland)
Saint Omer(France)

As discussed in our best-director and best-picture entries,All Quiet on the Western Front is poised to be the international breakthrough of the year, making it an obvious front-runner in this category. We’re filling out the rest of the list with films that hit big at major international festivals, while acknowledging that a surprise along the lines ofA Yak in the Classroom is always possible.Lukas Dhont’s emotional adolescence drama,Close, tied for the Cannes Grand Prix,Jerzy Skolimowski’s donkey saga,EO,won the Jury Prize; Park Chan-wook’s detective-thriller-cum-romanceDecision to Leavewon best director. First-time directorAlice Diop didn’t premiere her film,Saint Omer, until Venice later in the summer, but won the Silver Lion prize, and became the first Black woman to ever represent France in this category. —KR

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild

Three animated films have been leading the pack all season:Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, andTurning Red. The meticulously made stop-motionPinocchio, from Netflix, has recently become the front-runner after leading the Annie Award nominations, and winning at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards (at the latter, del Toro gave an impassioned speech about how animation is not just for kids). DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wishseems likely to make the list over Disney’s box office misses (Pixar’sLightyearand Disney Animation Studios’Strange World) and Netflix will earn a second slot for Wendell & Wild, which also landed a best-animated-feature slot at the Annies. —RF

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny

It’s imperfect, but the Producers Guild’s best-documentary list provides the best barometer for what the Academy tends to recognize—of late, often as many as four of the five Oscar nominees. Combining that with what we saw of the Oscars short lists, four PGA-stamped titles appear strongest on the basis of their formal qualities—this branch hates archival work—and critical acclaim:All That Breathes, Descendant, Fire of Love,andNavalny. As for what else could sneak in? This fickle branch enjoys their surprises, so nothing is off the table, but based purely on visibility,Bad Axe, Last Flight Home, and Moonage Daydream seem to have a good shot. I’d put the most money onAll the Beauty and the Bloodshed making it through, however—Laura Poitras is a past winner of this category, and her rigorous portrait of the activist-photographerNan Goldin took Venice by storm. The international-leaning Academy should be similarly impressed. —DC

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Carter Burwell,The Banshees of Inisherin
Alexandre Desplat,Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Hildur Guðnadóttir,Women Talking
Justin Hurwitz,Babylon
John Williams,The Fabelmans

Doing some of the most deceptively simple work of his career,John Williams ought to earn his 53rd Oscar nomination—yes, you read that right!—for his reunion with Steven Spielberg onThe Fabelmans. Joining him will be a group only slightly less prestigious.Alexandre Desplat is an 11-time nominee who can usually expect to be included even when his work isn’t as heartstring-tugging as what he contributed toPinocchio.ThoughBabylon’s awards hopes have faltered,Justin Hurwitzwon the Golden Globe for his bombastic score, and could very well land the film’s sole nomination.Carter Burwell perfectly captured the idiosyncratic, slightly haunting tone ofThe Banshees of Inisherin, and will easily follow that film’s momentum to a nomination. And thoughWomen Talking has also had to adjust its awards hopes,Hildur Guðnadóttir is a rising star in the field, a recent winner forJoker, and with her work onTárseemingly everywhere this season. —KR

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna, & Tems,“Lift Me Up,”Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II & Jazmine Sullivan,“Stand Up,”Till
Lady Gaga & Michael “BloodPop,”“Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick
M. M. Keeravani & Chandrabose,“Naatu Naatu,” RRR
Diane Warren,“Applause,”Tell It Like a Woman

Last year, I countedout Diane Warren for a movie that no one had seen, but I won’t make the same mistake this year (she’s back for the song “Applause” fromTell It Like a Woman), especially since she’s fresh off herGovernors Awards honor. But this year’s group already feels like a three-song race betweenRihanna’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ballad,Lady Gaga’s Top Gun: Maverick song, and the wild breakout hit “Naatu Naatu” from RRR. There are a couple films vying for that last slot including “Ciao Papa” fromPinocchio, “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise, and The Weeknd’s “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” fromThe Way of Water,but we’re going to go withTill’s powerful “Stand Up” for its meaningful message. —RF

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Roger Deakins,Empire of Light
James Friend,All Quiet on the Western Front
Janusz Kaminski,The Fabelmans
Claudio Miranda,Top Gun: Maverick
Mandy Walker,Elvis

A lot going on here after the American Society of Cinematographers—a broader voting body that nonetheless has plenty in common with the Academy’s cinematography branch—snubbed seeming locks likeThe Fabelmans’Janusz Kaminski,Babylon’s Linus Sandgren, andAvatar: The Way of Water’sRussell Carpenter. Instead they vaulted movies ranging fromThe Batman toElvis toBardo—in other words, from very commercial to very not. And then BAFTA kept the mess messy by throwingAll Quiet on the Western Front into the mix too.

The ASC’s list was rounded out byEmpire of Light’sRoger DeakinsandTop Gun: Maverick’sClaudio Miranda,two Oscar winners who should feel comfortable, having been recognized by most every major industry group (with gorgeous work to boot). Kaminski is the easiest ASC snub to explain, given his tumultuous history with that group—they also snubbed him last year forWest Side Storybefore the Academy nominated him—so he should theoretically be safe, even if BAFTA also leaving him off indicates trouble.Elvis, meanwhile, is the ASC surprise most worth taking seriously, as DPMandy Walkerhas been remarkably consistent in making nominations lists and the biopic has established itself as a strong overall player. She’d be the third-ever female nominee in the category. For the last slot you could go in a number of directions, but if the Academy’s past is prologue here, I think it’ll be hard for the Academy to resistJames Friend’s work onAll Quiet: They love war films in this category, and the cinematography branch has always been relatively open to non-English-language movies (seeCold Wara few years back). It’s also a much simpler vote than theAvatarsequel, which, although its predecessor won this category, has been plagued by criticisms over those jarring frame-rate shifts. —DC

BEST EDITING

Sven Budelmann,All Quiet on the Western Front
Eddie Hamilton,Top Gun: Maverick
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen,The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Rogers,Everything Everywhere All at Once
Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa,Elvis

There’s a well-documented correlation between earning a best-editing nomination and winning best picture, though be careful not to make too much of it—just last year, after all,CODA triumphed without a nomination here. But we do expect best-picture front-runnersEverything Everywhere All at Once andThe Banshees of Inisherin to duke it out here, joined by fellow best-picture hopefuls, and more traditional spectacles,Top Gun: Maverick andElvis. And yes, we are once again predicting a nomination forAll Quiet on the Western Front,which was on zero prediction lists a month ago. Maybe it’s recency bias talking, but we figure if there’s any place a well-regarded war film will show up, it’s here. —KR

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Hannah Beachler,Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, and Vanessa Cole,Avatar: The Way of Water
Jason Kisvarday,Everything Everywhere All at Once
Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, and Beverley Dunn,Elvis
Florencia Martin,Babylon

Spectacle almost always takes the prize in this category.Elvis feels like a lock for that reason alone, but let’s not forget that production/costume designer (and also director Baz Luhrmann’s wife)Catherine Martin also has four Oscars to her name already.Wakanda Foreverproduction designerHannah Beachleralso won the Oscar for her work onBlack Panther, and should be returning to this list again.Avatar: The Way of Water’s technical mastery will land it a spot here as well, andBabylon, while it may not play in the above-the-line categories, should be rewarded for its bombastic style (it recently won at the Critics Choice Awards).Everything Everywhere All at Once may be a bit on the bubble in this category and could lose out to eitherThe FabelmansorGlass Onion, but we’re guessing that the overall support for the film could boost it here as well. —RF

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Jenny Beavan,Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Ruth Carter,Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin,Elvis
Gersha Phillips,The Woman King
Mary Zophres,Babylon

Period is always tops with the costume-design branch, which is bad news forGlass Onion—even as guilds and other precursor groups have recognizedJenny Eagan’s vibrant costumes in the mystery-comedy—and good news for smaller international players looking for a way in, like the UK’sLiving(Sandy Powell) or Austria’sCorsage(Monika Buttinger). But you’ve got a lot of heavy hitters to push past here in order to pull off a nod: There’sRuth Carter’s undeniable work on theBlack Panthersequel, even with her having recently won for the first one;Mary Zophres’s indulgent ode to Hollywood glamour and debauchery inBabylon;Gersha Phillips’s badass warriors inThe Woman King; and Catherine Martin’s recreation of a cultural icon inElvis. Throw in the legendaryJenny Beavan,whose gowns all but propel the plot forMrs. Harris Goes to Paris, and there might not be an underdog in sight. —DC

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
The Whale

It’s hard to argue with the power of a transformation in this category, which gives an edge to three different contenders:Elvis turned Austin Butler into the King at many stages of his life,The Whale used prosthetics to turn Brendan Fraser into a couch-bound obese man, andBlonde made Ana de Armas a remarkable double for Marilyn Monroe. Larger-scale spectacles ought to round out the category, from the otherworldly underwater societies inBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever to the period-and-beyond stylings ofBabylon. —KR

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Top Gun: Maverick

The first Black Panther didn’t end up getting a nomination here in 2019, but expect its follow-up to land a spot this time around, along with fellow Marvel sequelDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (the 2016Doctor Strange did get a nomination).The BatmanandTop Gun: Maverick should also make this sequel-heavy category, though there’s a chance All Quiet on the Western Front could sneak into one of those spots because this category does often favor war dramas. But does any of it really matter? We’re pretty sure we know the film that will win this one regardless. It’s safe to say there’s no stoppingAvatar: The Way of Water. —RF

BEST SOUND

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick

Ever since the Academy combined sound editing and mixing, this category has gotten a little fuzzier—and more competitive. But this is one year where many of the likely nominees’ attributes speak for themselves: the roaring jets ofTop Gun: Maverick, the musical time machine ofElvis, the harrowing warfare ofAll Quiet on the Western Front, the…splashes ofAvatar: The Way of Water (they’re vivid!).Babylon,a once-assumed player, just hasn’t found industry traction thus far, so it’s difficult to justify predicting it. Meanwhile, the industry love forEverything Everywhere All at Oncemay extend here if the Academy truly embraces it, following some guild recognition, for the range of work that had to be done in this department, with the film careening between genres and styles.Everything, indeed. —DC

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